My cousin has been coming to the Northwest Territories (NWT) on expeditions for the last 10 years, and has lived in Yellowknife for the last 6 years. I asked her if there were any significant environmental changes she has noted; she said that there has been a definite increase in forest fires in the summers. When she first started coming to the NWT on expeditions, she didn’t account for forest fires in her planning. As years went on, fires became the normal, and they had to be anticipated.
Climate change impacts have been noted in the north in various capacities. Between 1958 to 2012, temperature increases were noted in communities across the NWT, with an average increase of 2.4 ℃ (Government of Northwest Territories, 2015) Good reference. Warmer temperatures have been noted in winter and spring in particular, increasing the growing season length, but leading to fires that are more frequent, extensive, and over a longer season (Coward and Weaver, 2005). It is expected that in a future warmer climate, there could be increases from 25 to 300% area burned, and fire season increased from 30 to 50 days in the NWT (Flannigan, Kochtubajda, & Logan, 2008) Good reference. Data from 2017 showed that while the number of fires in NWT is relatively comparable to the 10 year average, the area burned in 2017 was relatively much greater (Natural Resources Canada, 2018).
I am relatively new to the area but would consult with local experts who have made similar observations:
Family/friends who reside in NWT long term
This observation was noted by my cousin who has been active in the NWT for the last decade. She was a great source of general observations as she has spent a lot of time out in the environment on kayaking expeditions in the summers.
First Nations elders
There are a number of First Nations throughout the NWT. As the NWT is a large territory, I would like to speak with elders from geographically different areas to assess if forest fire increases have been observed historically throughout the territory. This could include the Inuvialuit, Gwich’in, Sahtu Dene, Dehcho, Tłįchǫ, and Akaitcho peoples which range from north to south (Indigenous Canada, n.d.).
POLAR Research and Projects
The scientific community in Canada has a number of projects in the north. I would like to speak with scientists engaged in the “Impacts of climate change on wildfire risk in boreal forests in the Northwest Territories” from the Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (Polar Knowledge Canada, 2018). Baseline data could back up observations by residents and First Nations.
Resources
Coward, H., & Weaver, A. (2005). Hard choices: Climate change in Canada. Waterloo: Wilfrid Laurier University Press.
Flannigan, M., Kochtubajda, B., & Logan, K. (2008). Forest Fires and Climate Change in the Northwest Territories. In Cold Region Atmospheric and Hydrologic Studies. The Mackenzie GEWEX Experience. (pp. 403-417). Berlin: Springer. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-73936-4_23
Government of Northwest Territories, Department of Environment and Natural Resources. (2015, June 13). Climate Observations in the Northwest Territories (1957-2012). Retrieved April 20, 2018, from http://www.enr.gov.nt.ca/sites/enr/files/page_3_nwt-climate-observations_06-13-2015_vf_1_0.pdf
Holling, C. S. (1986). The resilience of terrestrial ecosystems: local surprise and global change. In Clark, W. C. & Mann, R. E. (eds.), Sustainable development of the biosphere (pp.292-319). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Indigenous Canada. (n.d.). Northwest Territories. Retrieved April 21, 2018, from https://indigenoustourism.ca/en/regions/northwest-territories/
Natural Resources Canada. (2018). Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Retrieved April 20, 2018, from http://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/report/graphs#gr1
Polar Knowledge Canada. (2018, March 13). 2017-2019 POLAR Funded Projects List. Retrieved April 20, 2018, from https://www.canada.ca/en/polar-knowledge/polar-funded-projects/2017-2019.html
