Coastal Flood Advisory

Observation by John Henry:

National Weather Service submitted a Coastal Flood Advisory for our area with an estimated storm surge height of 6-8 feet with an approximate highest water levels from 3AM to noon for 2/12/19 with estimated SW winds from 35 to 55 mph. Photographs were taken in two time stages: first stage was taken between 9:30AM-948AM of the coastal, riverine, and SE section of the community; and second stage was taken around 2:42PM-253PM near the coastal, riverine, and SE section of the community. A video was taken during the first stage near the coastal. The coastal had slush near the shoreline with no shoreline ice beyond the slush line. If the surge height was at a much higher level, with the wind speed, there would have been a higher possibility of wave run up due to no ice to buffer the wave action.

Comments by LEO Editors:

Between January 27 and February 13th, LEO received four other observations documenting the impacts from a series of warm storms in Western Alaska. Observations of open water were sent in by Sharon Nayokpuk in Shishmaref and Nick Treinen in Nome. Carol Oliver described high water that prevented community members in Golovin from traveling safely. Philomena Keyes reported unusual flooding in Kotlik.

Climate Scientist Richard Thoman described the storm is response to Philomena's observation of flooding, including a description of the storm surges in Unalakleet. He writes:

"Following colder weather during December and the first half of January, a persistently stormy pattern returned to western Alaska the last week of January and continued for several weeks. The milder temperatures and sustained south to southeast winds greatly reduced overall Bering Sea ice extent and created persistent areas of open water or low concentration ice on the north side of St. Lawrence Island, southern and eastern Norton Sound, the northern Seward Peninsula coast and southern Kotzebue Sound. A particularly strong storm moved moved across the northern Bering Sea and then into northwest Alaska February 11-12th. This storm produced widespread wind gusts in excess of 50 mph over much of the region from Nome eastward. With all the open water, these strong winds produced a measured storm surge of about 10 feet at Unalakleet. This unprecedented high water for this time of year backed up into the Yukon River and produced the observed flooding at Kotik."

Regarding the lack of shorefast ice, University of Alaska Fairbanks professor Olivia Lee provided information on 2018-2019 ice trends in response to Nick's observation of leads in the ice near Nome.She writes:

"The northwest Alaska Arctic this year is not showing anomalously low ice conditions this winter. This is a good break in the trend after 4 sequential years of unprecedented low winter and spring sea ice Sea Ice Prediction Network 2. However, despite a return to more normal sea ice concentrations, there appears to be little evidence of greater stable shorefast ice, and strong winds and currents can continue to influence movement of coastal shorefast ice" Erica Lujan